In a new analysis published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, experts warned of the possibility that the Iran-backed Houthi movement could escalate its military activities if the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies—particularly if the United States launches strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

According to the analysis, the Houthis wasted no time in signaling their initial involvement. On June 15—less than three days after the launch of Operation "Rising Lion"—the group claimed to have fired ballistic missiles at Israel in coordination with Tehran. The report suggests the Houthis may continue backing Iran through a new wave of missile attacks or by resuming operations in the Red Sea and nearby maritime corridors.

Experts noted that the group could target U.S. assets in the region, especially commercial vessels, if Washington proceeds with strikes inside Iran. While a deal reached in May had led the Houthis to halt attacks on American ships in exchange for a suspension of U.S. strikes in Yemen, that agreement may become irrelevant if the war expands.

The analysis also warns that the Houthis may strike vessels they believe are Israeli or affiliated with Israel in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, repeating patterns from last year when they attacked ships suspected of links to Tel Aviv. However, the report highlights the group's poor track record in accurately identifying targets, raising the risk of mistakenly hitting unrelated vessels and further threatening global trade and maritime security.

The Institute’s experts say the Houthis' eagerness to join the fight is not surprising, given the extensive military support they have received from Iran over the years—including advanced weaponry and technical training. Yet the analysis cautions that a collapse of the Iranian regime—if it occurs—would deal a strategic blow to the Houthis, who rely heavily on Tehran as their primary foreign backer.

In light of these assessments, the Washington Institute urges the United States and its partners to expand maritime security monitoring beyond the Gulf to include the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the Houthis maintain operational control and could once again use this leverage to disrupt international shipping in retaliation for any attack on Iran.